By James Long

I’m putting my head above the parapet this year and publishing who I think will win each coveted Brit award before they are handed out by the rent-a-celebs. This is in stark contrast to previous years, when I would silently predict the winner, get proven wrong, then pretend I guessed correctly all along. 

As I retain the right to be characteristically self-righteous and superior about my own musical tastes, I’ll also note who I think ’should’ win each award. For no other reason than my own, smug, self-satisfaction.

As you’ll see below 2008/9 was the year of ‘the ladies’. All of the female categories are almost too close to call so I’m expecting to suffer most embarrasment here. This leaves the male categories as relatively level playing fields. I’ll stick my neck out a bit also and remind you that The Brits have always been about quantity (of records sold) rather than (artistic) quality. It’s lovely when the two coincide and it has occurred many times in the past. I’ll assume that the men in suits will have the deciding vote this year and will be happy to be proven wrong.

Anyway, award shows don’t matter because Music is the real winner, Man! Unless (good grief!) Scouting for Girls wins anything. Not only then is music not the real winner, but it’s been kicked in the knackers and had it’s dinner money stolen.

For your consideration:

Best British Male

In this category, all the nominees this year are previous winners, which shows how quiet the industry is around solo male artists at the moment following the push from the bigwigs to replicate the success of Amy, Lily, Corinne et al. Ian Brown and The Streets hardly set the world alight last year. Will Young could be a dark horse as he released ‘Let Go’, another set of earnest easy-listening pop to keep the housewives happy. Paul Weller scored a UK number one album and received his best reviews for over a decade with ‘22 Dreams’. However, I think this one belongs to James Morrison. The recipient of the same award in 2007, ‘Songs For You, Truths For Me’, his follow up to 2006’s ‘Undiscovered’, has been selling steadily since it’s release last year, helped along by the hit duet with Nelly Furtado, ‘Broken Strings’.

Ian Brown
James Morrison Will Win! Should Win! 
The Streets
Paul Weller Did Win!
Will Young

Best British Female

As much as the Brits are all about rewarding record sales, they also know how to throw in the odd wild card. This year Beth Rowley would have been the one that had most people asking ‘Who?’ when the nominations were announced. However, she went top ten last summer with her debut album ‘Little Dreamer’ and the Brits have sometimes awarded lesser known nominees in the big categories. Sadly, 2009 is unlikely to be her year awards-wise, although the extra interest generated in the album will more than compensate. M.I.A. & Estelle both had huge worldwide hits last year. M.I.A. sold over 2 million downloads of Paper Planes in the US alone. Taken from 2007’s ‘Kala’ LP, The ubiquitous track was used on the soundtrack for both Pineapple Express & Slumdog Millionaire during 2008, catapulting it back onto the airwaves. However, without anything like the same amount of interest in any of her other material, I can’t see her winning this. The same problem could befall Estelle, unquestionably one of THE tracks of 2008, American Boy (with Kanye West) deservedly re-introduced Estelle following the disappointing sales of 2004’s debut ‘The 18th Day’. Decamping to New York in the interim to sign to John Legends ‘Homeschool’ label, Estelle came back in 2008 with ‘Shine’. A record which boasted Will.I.Am and Mark Ronson among it’s other high profile collaborators. Although the record was a hit both sides of the Atlantic, the success of American Boy overshadowed subsequent singles and it’s doubtful we’ll see her walk away with a statuette tonight. Which leaves Adele & Duffy in the running. Although Adele won the ‘Critics Choice’ award last year, it was Duffy who saw the biggest year in terms of record sales. Duffy’s debut ‘Rockferry’ was the biggest seller of 2008 in the U.K. and even went top 5 in the US. Adele’s debut ‘19′ also sold strongly in both territories. A chart-topper in the UK, and just falling short of the top 10 in the US, the Soul and Jazz-inflected record set out to showcase Adele’s astounding vocals, whereas Duffy’s no less impressive take on Soul was clearly more influenced by Dusty Springfiled circa 1960’s. Although I prefer Adele personally, I think this will be decided upon by sales: Duffy.

Adele Should Win!
Beth Rowley
Duffy Will Win! Did Win!
Estelle
MIA

Best Breakthrough

I won’t even contemplate Scouting For Girls taking this home. I’m not too sure what they could have been considered to breakthrough. Boundaries of good taste, perhaps? Let’s just see this nomination as a concession to the fact that they did actually sell quite a lot of records last year. There. I said it. Far more palatable are the Last Shadow Puppets, the side-project of head-Arctic Monkey Alex Turner and Miles Kane of The Rascals. Very good in a ‘Look Pa! I’ve listened to your Scott Walker albums’ kind of way, I’m not sure theirs can be seen as a breakthrough as such, given that one of them already has 4 Brit Awards for the day job. Cheat. Moving on to the likely contenders, the Ting Tings must’ve been gawping at each other in amazement when both ‘That’s Not My Name’ and debut album ‘We Started Nothing’ shot to number one. 2008 also saw another of their tracks ‘Shut Up & Let Me Go’ soundtrack an Apple commercial in the US securing mass exposure and resulting in further success ‘across the pond’ for both song and album. They get my vote as I think of all those nominated, The Ting Tings truly illustrate a ‘breakthrough’. However, I think this one could end up a two-way battle between Duffy & Adele. For reasons already explained, I think this one could go to the Welsh bird.

Adele
Duffy Will Win! Did Win!
Last Shadow Puppets
Scouting For Girls
The Ting Tings Should Win!

Best British Group

Probably the toughest category of all to predict, I’ll probably balls this one up royally. Here goes. Well let’s get rid of Radiohead for start. As absolutely astonishing as 2007’s ‘In Rainbows’ was (and, make no mistake, ’tis perfect), the UK record industry will not reward a band who clearly flouted ‘the rules’ and allowed the record buying public to pay what they wanted for a record that would otherwise have made a considerable amount for those poor investment fund managers. Or whoever it is that actually owns the record companies today. Bye bye Radiohead. Then we have Take That & Girls Aloud flying the flag for ‘Pop’. Girls Aloud, as fabulous as they are, are unlikely to win this. Take That, however, have sold a huge amount of records (and concert tickets) since they reformed. A possibility. I love Elbow. I loved them when they were dropped by V2 in 2005 even though they had just released their best album, ‘Leaders of the Free World’. But I love them even more now everybody else does too. No other band more deserves the praise that has been heaped upon them. Majestic, passionate, and poetic, the emotional punch delivered by 2008’s ‘The Seldom Seen Kid’ has been made even more emphatic by it’s triumph at the Mercury awards last September and it’s residency in most end-of-2008 best of lists. In a just world, they would sweep the board. However, it’s Coldplay that sell the records They went home with this award on all 3 previous occasions when they were nominated. I can only really see Take That giving them a serious run for their money. And as Coldplay sell, like, loads of records, like, everywhere. I think this could be their fourth. One for each member no less.

Coldplay Will Win! 
Elbow Should Win! Did Win! 
Girls Aloud
Radiohead
Take That

Best British Live Act

Do I need to say anything more about Scouting For Girls? I’m sure Iron Maiden are a good live act. It’s just the chances of getting out of one of their ‘gigs’ alive is quite minimal so i’m not sure how anyone knows. I don’t think so, Bruce. The Verve. Not a bad proposition live I guess. As long as they just play the old stuff. Did you listen to the ‘new’ album (2008’s ‘Forth’)? I did. It should not be encouraged. Nor rewarded. Now, this is where it get’s interesting as I think Elbow will triumph over Coldplay due to them, you know, actually being better live. I saw Elbow at Latitude last July and grown men wept openly the moment the clouds parted during ‘One Day Like This’ and let the glorious sun through. I bet that never happens at an Iron Maiden ’show’.

Coldplay
Elbow Will Win! Should Win 
Iron Maiden Did Win 
Scouting for Girls
The Verve

Best British Single

Oh look, Scouting For Girls! Again. This one was actually voted for by the public. Records as astoundingly good as ‘That’s Not My Name’ & ‘American Boy’ are not as good as this Scouting for Girls record apparently. Some of these people are actually allowed to vote for our government too. Well, that’s one in the eye for democracy. If ‘Heartbeat’ actually wins, consider it the first sign of Armageddon and start praying. On the plus side, we’ve got Leona Lewis who has had a few rather lovely hit singles since she won X-Factor. Sadly, neither of those is nominated in this category. Whoops. Duffy & Coldplay are likely to scoop the big awards and, even though that doesn’t preclude them from winning the public vote, I think this one is destined for Girls Aloud. ‘Mercy’ & ‘Viva La Vida’ would both be worthy winners, but ‘The Promise’ scored one of the biggest first sales weeks last year to secure Girls Aloud another number 1 single. Deservedly, they seem to have built a considerable amount of goodwill resulting in 2008’s ‘Out of Control’ becoming their biggest-selling album (Best Of.. aside). So it’s your choice. Girls Aloud or Armageddon?

Coldplay – Viva la Vida
Duffy – Mercy
Girls Aloud – The Promise Will Win! Should Win! Did Win! 
Leona Lewis – Better In Time
Scouting For Girls – Heartbeat

Mastercard Best British Album

The Ting Tings’ ‘We Started Nothing’ is very good. However it is not the best British album of 2008. Nor did it sell in sufficient quantities to overlook this. ‘In Dreams’ is unlikley to win due to previously mentioned ’selling initiative’. Elbow’s ‘The Seldom Seen Kid’ is an amazing album, but is it amazing enough to give the Brits organisers cause to overlook the millions of sales racked up by Duffy and Coldplay? Talking of which, who is likely to triumph in the battle of the big sellers? Well, from a purely objective point of view, Bernard Butler picked up the Brit for Producer of the year when it was announced on 12th February. Even though he produced other records last year, this can be seen as a direct result of his work on ‘Rockferry’. Therefore, my heart says Elbow, but my head says Duffy.

Coldplay – Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends
Duffy – Rockferry Will Win! Did Win! 
Elbow – The Seldom Seen Kid Should Win! 
Radiohead – In Rainbows
The Ting Tings – We Started Nothing

Best International Group & Album 

Frankly, I can’t see any other band getting these 2 awards than Kings Of Leon. AC/DC sold loads of records internationally, Fleet Foxes delighted with their self-titled debut, Killers continued with their habit of making half a great album and half a dud one, and MGMT arrived with primary colours and psychedelic tunes that won hearts but not record sales. However, it’s Kings of Leon who really triumphed. Largely ignored in the US since they released 2003 debut ‘Youth & Young Manhood’, they focused their efforts on consolidating their fanbase in Europe, not least the UK. This seems to have paid off dividends as, not only did they score one of only 4 albums to top the 1 million mark in the UK last year with ‘Only By the Night’, but they have started to get noticed at home, including 3 nominations in this years Grammys.

AC/DC – Black Ice
Fleet Foxes – Fleet Foxes
Killers – Day & Age
Kings Of Leon – Only By the Night Will Win! Did Win! 
MGMT – Oracular Spectacular Should Win! 

International Male Solo Artist

Similarly to the British Male category, anyone of these could go home with the trophy. Beck has form in this category as he is a ‘BIG DEAL’. I would give it to Seasick Steve as i saw him live and thought he was a charming old boy who had the whole crowd eating from his palm. However, I think Kanye West or Jay-Z are more than likely to come out on top to show that, y’know, us Brits are down. And shit. I’ll predict Kanye will take it as he tends to invade the stage if he doesn’t win stuff. There, there, Kanye. there, there.

Beck
Neil Diamond
Jay-Z
Kanye West Will Win! Did Win! 
Seastick Steve Should Win! 

International Female Solo Artist

Another strong female category. The boys are really getting an arse whooping this year. Sadly for the girls, anyone of these could have won in previous years but that’s the way it goes. The field is just too strong for Gabriella Cilmi to win. At least she doesn’t have to suffer the embarrasment of seeing Vic Reeves tryng to pronounce her name. Memories from 1996 of Neil Morrissey trying to pronounce Alanis Morrisette, and ending up sounding like an Italian car maker had just one Best International Newcomer, are still quite fresh. Santogold’s self titled debut was one of the best albums released last year. A bold and diverse record that was influenced by New Wave and Post-Punk, it stands head & shoulders above the releases by the other nominees. However, much like Beth Rowley, Santogold should be grateful of the extra attention and not expect to take home the little gold man. This leaves the big sellers, Beyonce seems to have no problem scoring a big single but 2005’s ‘B’day’ and last year’s ‘I Am..’ have not emulated the success of her 2002 debut ‘Dangerously In Love’ in the UK. Katy Perry has also notched up 2 very big hit singles from her debut ‘One Of the Boys’. However, sales of the album have not been as strong. Which leaves the most likely winner of this award, Pink. Consistently outselling both Britney & Christina on these shores, Pink is that rare breed: A pop star who hasn’t been media-trained to within an inch of her life and actually pours herself into each record ending up with something that no one else could produce. I may not love her records but I do love Pink.

Beyonce
Gabriella Cilmi
Katy Perry Did Win! 
Pink Will Win! 
Santogold Should Win!

Right, that’s it. Now, what do I win?